XOM

I've been looking at the long-term chart and the current situation, with the stock essentially being stuck in a relatively stable trading range, is very much like after the correction following the .com bust in 2000. After consolidation the stock eventually moved 90 % in about two years (2003-2005), and another 90% (250% overall) in the next two years. Since this stock is a spring stock (making its moves early in the year) you can definitely expect this to show some legs next year -- once it moves it's also likely to happen faster than previously given the more dynamic market environment. What is more, beyond the plain trend assumptions here, the company's done some restructuring including an acquisition of a major natural gas provider, which puts it in a good position for the expected boom in this field. By the way, they also do interesting research in biofuels from algae, which is an approach which a lot of green start ups are also pursuing... so at least they're not purely evil :-)

Not a buyer, but definitely think this is a safe play and good growth opportunity.

IBM

IBM is harder to fit into trend assessments because of its special role as a long-term success in the IT field which as a whole has seen so many busts; yet I believe that this stock is finally ready to move on its own right, shedding the long-term trading range between, roughly, $70 and $130. In fact, the stock has been trading much like in the period between '91 and '96, which coincidentally was during the time that Windows/DOS-based IBM PCs made their way out of specialised computing labs into the broad consumer market.

Unfortunately, at this point I don't know enough about their current business to tell whether they are at a similar stage now with their focus on business intelligence and embedded technology. Basically, by holding this stock you are betting that this time around (as opposed to the .com period) there is actual technology and business adoption driving their stock movement; something which last was the case in the 90s with widespread Windows adoption on their platforms. If this is the case, expect the stock to narrow decisively between $128 and $144 before breaking through that level and establishing itself in the top half of the 100s over the next two years. An important development in this context is the advancement of optical computing; if there are significant breakthroughs this would obviously mean a big push for IT in general and business communications in particular (computing at optical speeds means massively improved security and hence potential for business to take place over larger and more complex networks).

So in conclusion, until I see optical computing as a serious possibility on the horizon I'm not a buyer. If anyone is reading this, I'm currently only following LWLG regarding optical computing developments. Maybe you can let me know where ale to look for its advancements.