Monday, December 21, 2009

XOM

I've been looking at the long-term chart and the current situation, with the stock essentially being stuck in a relatively stable trading range, is very much like after the correction following the .com bust in 2000. After consolidation the stock eventually moved 90 % in about two years (2003-2005), and another 90% (250% overall) in the next two years. Since this stock is a spring stock (making its moves early in the year) you can definitely expect this to show some legs next year -- once it moves it's also likely to happen faster than previously given the more dynamic market environment. What is more, beyond the plain trend assumptions here, the company's done some restructuring including an acquisition of a major natural gas provider, which puts it in a good position for the expected boom in this field. By the way, they also do interesting research in biofuels from algae, which is an approach which a lot of green start ups are also pursuing... so at least they're not purely evil :-)

Not a buyer, but definitely think this is a safe play and good growth opportunity.

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